20A051 Let it Rip  by Jim Davies, 12/22/2020  


Very soon after the Bogus Plague allegedly hit, back in February 2020, I was calling for a "Laissez Faire" approach; let it alone, and let us alone. Allow the alleged virus take its natural course, let it rip. In the context of the general panic, that suggestion was poorly received.

If evidence had clearly shown a new Black Death was descending, some kind of emergency action might have seemed appropriate; but, what kind? The point of a real plague is that it has no known cure. So if urgent action is needed nobody knows what to do; while if it's not needed, the question of what to do does not arise. The most that might take place, if a bug broke loose that is damaging but not irresistible, would be for doctors to advise everyone to stay apart, as when colds and flu are going around - until a cure is discovered.

That was done quite reasonably in my distant youth, I recall, on the London Underground; ads in that confined space would advise "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases / catch them in your handkerchief." Natty slogan, sensible advice.

Here's what would have happened to the Covid-19 case, had it been left alone.

By end-February, this was known - from China: unimpeded, the Wuhan Bug infections double every three days; about 70 per million get seriously ill; and of those, 5% die. I know of no later data that has changed those measurements, though they do assume honesty in reporting (not evident in the US or EU) and refer to deaths caused by C-19 alone.

So - out with the calculator. Doubling in 3 days equals a daily spread rate of 26% so starting with one infected person taking no particular care to isolate himself, all 330 million in America will have been infected in 85 days (1.26^85.) What matters for hospital resources is the week or ten days required to treat the resulting serious cases (70 per million.) Let's do the math.

During those final ten days of the epidemic the new infections will be 330 million (the maximum) minus (1.26^75) and that's (330 - 34 =) 296 million. Yes, by far the biggest problem happens at the end of the period. Ironic that lockdowns, said to protect hospitals, began at the start of the period.

296 x 70 is just under 21,000, needing intensive care. Could the 6,146 US hospitals with 96,596 ICU beds cope? - obviously so, with more than 4 ICU beds available for every 1 required, in the worst possible phase of the outbreak. Like the President said before he was nobbled, this is no big deal.

In practice the number of serious cases in that busiest period would be less than 21,000 because the condition of being "unimpeded" (para 5 above) won't be met, for the rapid growth rate of 26% a day applies only to populations as dense as China's. The US has many sparsely-populated areas where the spread would be much slower, and on average the density is 87 per sq mile (vs. China's 378.)

Why, then, does the entire media industry continue to insist that resources are even now being stretched and that the plague is real and dangerous? - because the entire media has, sadly, been manipulated by Democrats who wish to scare and subdue everyone into greater dependence on government. It can do so in part because in mid-2020 the definition of a "case" was changed; previously it meant someone with acute symptoms in urgent need of hospital care (that was the 70 per million) but since then, it has meant anyone found to have a C-19 infection who may be feeling out of sorts. Hence the emphasis on soaring "cases." Great, for hospitals collecting $12,500 taxpayer largesse per C-19 admission. And great, for prolonging intimidation by government.

Counting from mid-February when C-19 made its debut, 85 days brings us to late May, 2020. Allow for the slower spreading here due to lower population density, and this nonsense would have been over and finished by mid-year. Once again, Laissez Faire would have served us very well.

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