Jim's Wuhan Bug Blog
This page is supplementary to the Zero Government Blog. The late-winter 2020 outbreak of the Corona virus is historically important and, to me, very interesting; although introduced on the parent ZGBlog as This Bogus Crisis and Some As to Qs in March, it seemed wrong to continue comments on this subject there every week when other topics beg for attention, yet events move so fast as to justify making some almost every day. Hence, this supplement.
I'll be focusing mainly on the numbers, and what they do and do not tell us, and will use as principal sources those offered by Worldometer and (to help compare it with influenza) the CDC and Medical News.
The most recent comments appear first, and older ones below them in date sequence. The game-changer is the entry for 4/2/2020.
Back to ZGB
9/23/2020Thanks to the eagle eye of a participant in the PBS News Hour forum ("JohnG123") I can report a significant find in this CDC update for 9/16; scroll down about 60% to "Comorbidities." It says "For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned."
So now they are admitting that 94% of the reported C-19 deaths were in fact caused by other conditions, with the Wuhan Bug being just a contributor at most. It's as if a person severely ill with one or more debilitating diseases then catches a bad cold and the total load is too much and he dies, the blame is placed on the cold!
Currently the CDC reports 200,000 C-19 deaths in the US. This one sentence means they now admit that only 12,000 of them were caused by C-19 alone. As below, that's still about ten times too high; but it's getting there. It's a confession even bigger than the one noted here on 5/7/2020.
8/1/2020Last weekend I belatedly spotted an extra culprit behind the Bogus Plague.
In the 4/26 entry below I suggested they are a group of 30 countries in G-20 (several belong to it as members in EU) because at that time those 30 were reporting DPMs far in excess of the rest of the world. I showed their motive was to intimidate their respective populations, which have been getting restive; to remind them who's in charge. Doing what governments always do, but with some coordination or collusion.
Not much conspiracy was needed; just an agreement, made perhaps at the last G-20 meeting over coffee and cognac, that when the next fever bug emerges each member would greatly exaggerate its ill effect so as to frighten the people. A few phone calls in February to agree that the Wuhan Bug would fit nicely, and they were off and running.
But last week I noticed that that list of 30 countries in Western Europe and North America (WENA) is almost identical to the list of members of NATO. Remove Sweden, Switzerland, Finland, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta then add Turkey, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Slovenia and the job is done; WENA becomes NATO.
The big differential between DPMs in the NATO countries and the rest of the world is almost exactly the same as that of WENA. Both are lower today than in April (because some countries in neither group, like Russia, India and Brazil, have seen the benefits of imposing extra domestic control and joined the fun, so increasing the DPMs in the "rest of the world") but NATO is still 8.7 times higher than RoW; completely unbelievable for the same bug attacking the same species in the same time period. And it is 105 times higher than the estimated baseline of true C-19 deaths.
So what might have been the rôle of NATO?
In a word: motive - and even, possibly, leadership. The 30 civilian government have motive enough, to continue trying to show how "necessary" they are, but NATO has an even stronger one, for it has been useless since 1990. Thirty years of comfortable sinecures for the officers in Brussels, enjoying the best of European culture, but with no significant function nor prospect of any. Then suddenly, in 2016 Americans elected Donald Trump, who says it's time to dismantle this white elephant and save the money. An existential threat! Supreme Allied Commander General Tod Wolters and his staff must have had kittens.
So they joined the conspiracy, such as it is, and the interests came together rather in the way that in the one formed to kill JFK; the Military Industrial Complex and the CIA and the Mafia and quite probably Lyndon Johnson formed the plot to end his life. Can't tell who began this one, but NATO has the strongest motive so may have actually led it. Trump is popular nowhere among governments, so a secondary aim (primary, in the US) is to destablize and dump him. If it succeeds, NATO will be safe.
NATO participation also explains why the Swedish version of the Plague has been so different from the rest of Europe. At first there were hardly any reports of C-19 deaths; clearly, the government there was not taking part in the conspiracy. Instead of starting the daily-death curve in late February, nothing happened there until March 18th. Three weeks late! Only then must Stefan Löfven have gotten the message that he ought to show his country is a good team player, so a pattern of alleged deaths was cobbled together. Even then, his government saw no need to place Swedes under house arrest and close businesses. Of course! Sweden is not a member of NATO!
Similarly, it explains why nearly all countries other than the 30 NATO conspirators have not bothered to take much part in the charade of daily death reporting; for it's just not a genuine problem. Illness began in China, yet Russia, India, Myanmar and others that border that country and trade with it at least as actively as we do, have only recently climbed aboard the bandwagon so as to bully their populations. They had not anticipated it. They aren't NATO members!
7/21/2020The hiatus here since 5/25 below happened because that entry pretty well wrapped up the mystery: this is a Bogus Plague, No Big Deal. The savage intimidation of people and businesses by government is being continued by pretending some kind of second wave is breaking upon us, but this entry turns to a different topic: Whodunnit? Meaning, not so much who brought about the tsunami of government lying (addressed on and after 4/8) but how did this actual, rather trivial virus appear?
At first, credible reports held that pigs in Wuhan had contracted a new disease and had to be destroyed, but that the burning was botched and some viri escaped and infected humans. That could still be so. Or maybe it came from the rather insanitary open-air live-animal markets there. Or maybe from the bio-weapon research laboratory in that city.
Suppose it was the latter. Was the release from the lab accidental, or deliberate? If deliberate, who ordered it? So far we don't know. Maybe someone does, but they aren't saying. So speculation is rife.
Hyper-conservatives ever vigilant for a conspiracy suggest the Chinese government did it, on purpose to wreck the US economy. I don't buy that. China today is above all a trading nation, and has done amazingly well as such for three decades, and not even a government would be so idiotic as to cripple the prosperity of its primary customers - in Europe, as well as the US. The motive is dead wrong.
Others say no, it was the US government that opened a lab window and let out the Wuhan Bug, so as to hurt the Chinese economy in order to protect US manufacturing from its competition and so that less money could be spent by the ChinGov on armaments like the navy that is busy dominating the South China Sea. The FedGov knew that at the same time it would also hurt the US economy, but was happy to take the opportunity to strut its stuff and deploy its domestic power - as below in this Blog.
That makes better sense regarding motive, but leaves a big gap with respect to means and opportunity. Any bio-weapon lab is obviously under heavy guard; how would any but trusted Chinese employees gain access?
So it seems to me very unlikely that the bug release was deliberate. What's been happening is consistent with an accident, of which WENA governments took ample, immediate and disgusting advantage.
5/25/2020As shown conclusively below and in the ZGBlog The Bogus Plague of 2020, there is massive mendacity throughout the table of counts, so not one of the given numbers can be trusted as reliable. We know nothing.
So the real virulence of C-19 can be gauged only by guesswork. Which countries might be least inclined to exaggerate? There's sub-Sahara Africa, with a DPM of 1.8 (compare the US 298!) but I fear their reporting systems may just not be up to the job.
Least incredible may be the Orient: China, Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan. These show a DPM rate of 3.3, or 90 times less than the US'. They are all reasonably well developed countries and their numbers are rather closely grouped; each one of them is in single digits. China (at 3.1) is dominant in the set, but none of the other countries (by themselves, DPM = 4.6) owe Beijing any fealty; they have no known reason to over- or understate their counts.
If that's correct it means that instead of some 100,000 US deaths from C-19 there have really been only about 1,100. All the rest are deaths that would have happened anyway, but which were falsely logged as victims of this Bogus Plague for political purposes.
5/12/2020Here's another brain-stretcher: a Chinese Puzzzle.
Ever since the Novel Corona virus surfaced in the news, Wuhan in China has been named as its source. The PRC government did not hesitate to announce that Wuhan was being tightly quarantined, and that when the crisis seemed to be over, photos were released showing teams of disinfectant sprayers preparing the rail station for re-opening. The strong implication was that all suffering from the WuFlu lived in that city. The chart shows that the threat was finished by mid-March.
Then in late April they announced that all China was now open for business and tourism. Come one, come all.
But "all" must include some from the West and elsewhere who are said to be still contagious. Now, if all China outside Wuhan was unaffected by the disease it follows that nobody has built immunity to it; so 1.4 billion people are at risk if exposed to foreign visitors. The PRC government is not stupid, so must be very confident that no problem is posed by that. It must know that everyone in China is immune, or else that anyone not immune and who gets infected by a foreign visitor can be handled readily by existing resources. That, I suggest, is a firm deduction.
Of the two, it makes better sense to me that all China is immune, for if some fraction of 1.4 billion had to be treated in hospital because trade with WENA was re-opening, the PR would be bad. But either way, the Bug is no big deal.
So let's take a look at the first of those possibilities - that in China, all are now immune. How could that have come about? - only two ways: the ChinGov designed, manufactured and distributed a vaccine to 1.4 billion people in a couple of months, or else everyone became infected and so was self-immunized. I dismiss the first of those as a fantasy, leaving the second. Yet it conflicts with the story that The Bug was confined to Wuhan.
So, was it really? I seem to recall a news item in March that said some doctors in Shanghai had found heavy doses of Vitamin C effective in curing seriously ill patents. So I checked the Net, and yes, here it is. That treatment took place at the Tongji Hospital in Shanghai. And if the WuFlu reached Shanghai, it could have reached anywhere in China. Therefore, the story that it was confined to Wuhan is not true. It was all over the country, but it suited them for some reason not to say so - or, not loudly. Conclusion: all or nearly all Chinese residents have self-immunized.
Something else can be deduced, from this large number of infections. Assuming only that the ChinGov reported its count correctly (and its DPM is very consistent with others on the Pacific Rim - indeed with the whole world, outside of WENA) then 1.5 billion infections led to 83,000 "cases" (serious illness, with hospital admission) or 55 per million, and to 4,633 deaths or 3.1 per million. So 55 and 3.1 are the standards for the true effects of this disease. Any numbers anywhere that greatly differ are false. Those showing a DPM 80 times higher in the US, for example, are grotesquely false.
So, contagion from visiting foreigners now is not a risk. That conclusion seems to me close to certain; governments do not (alas) deliberately commit suicide. Hence, the opening of the gates.
Now, if the WuFlu spread throughout the whole country between early January and mid-March (70 days, say) we can learn more about its rate of replication. How long does it take to double? 1.5 billion residents is 2 to the power of 30, so it doubled every (70/30=) 2.33 days.
That's a bit faster than the 3 to 4 days commonly reported, and means that the USA was fully infected (and so, fully immune) before the end of April. The current reports of "new cases" are bogus, and all the remaining restrictions on freedom and business are in place for wholly political reasons. President Trump was right when he said until February 24th that this "no big deal, just another hoax" and wrong since then when he accepted advice that it might kill 1.6 million. Those advisors need to be named and fired, and their connections to his opponents, exposed.
5/9/2020Don't know about you but I've found this Bogus Plague to be quite a brain-stretcher, mostly because it has no precedent. There have been big-scale diseases before, eg the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago which killed many millions, but (a) they were real killer diseases, while the Wuhan Bug kills only occasionally, and (b) for all of them, there was no large-scale, business-ruining, freedom-ending government intervention - whereas this time, it's huge.
The bug seems to spread very fast (doubling infectees every 3 or 4 days) but produces almost no symptoms in nearly everyone while making a few seriously ill and a very few (probably 3 per million population, see 4/26 entry below) it kills. This is multiplied a hundredfold by the government lie-generator, to occupy the media and the public mind. Some say the Wuhan Bug itself was engineered on purpose, by some government somewhere, to do all that; maybe. I'll not propose more conspiracy than is needed.
But conspiracy, or at least a malevolent plan, there certainly was: for this is not a medical crisis but a political and economic one. Its purpose is to subdue populations, to scare them into even greater dependence on government. And to judge by the number of facemasks being worn without legal compulsion, alas it's working. Government is lying absolutely. It's well known that you can tell when a politician is lying by watching for his lips to move, yet people believe it. I think that's terribly sad. The plague of Covid-19 is bogus: the plague of government is dreadful and real.
The house-arrest and enterprise-destroying interventions are "justified" by the published counts of deaths, and those are all lies. In Western Europe and North America there are still reported 40 times the deaths-per-million that apply to all the rest of the world (85% of countries, 89% of the population) and that huge discrepancy applies (some more, some less) no matter what subset of those other countries is compared; details here. The only credible explanation is that governments are deliberately falsifying the figures.
To achieve its evil purpose of making us ever more submissive, it has been willing to ignore any and all Constitutional limits and bring the economy to its knees. Rivalry between its two big parties has been put aside; Democrats are I think in the driver's seat in the US on this suicidal race to ruin, but Trump - elected to drain that "Swamp" - has been compromised. In early March he stopped saying "This is no big deal, it's just another Democrat hoax" and suggested that over a million might die, and took the lead in "fighting" the disease, thereby joining and endorsing the Swamp. So: the REAL disease is Government.
5/7/2020It's amazing, but the CDC continues its lies, actually presenting two faces, two sets of figures.
One, it 'fessed up that on May 3rd that it had overcounted US C-19 deaths by "mistake" and that while 67,000 was the previous total a more realistic figure was some 37,000; see here.
But two, it continues to publish the previous 67,000 figure, plus increases, via Worldometer! Government continues to keep the economy closed on the basis of these admittedly wrong numbers!
5/4/2020Breaking News: this Bogus Plague is beginning to fall apart. The lies on which it's founded are starting to be exposed, just as I've been predicting throughout this Blog. Okay, the CDC hasn't actually admitted to lying, nor that 98% of its US reports of C-19 deaths are false; but it has confessed over-stating them by 30,000 or 79%, by mistake. It's a start.
The report was spotted by economist and historian Thomas DiLorenzo, whose blog post is here; he calls it the "Hoax of the Century." He gives a link to the CDC announcement.
4/26/2020It's such a dynamic situation that this won't be easy, but today I'll try to summarize what's been going on since this Bogus Plague was unleashed.
From the first entry below (3/30/2020) the published statistics were spotted as "fishy." That has grown ever more clear, and I saw by 4/8 and 4/9 that the G-20 countries were reporting far higher deaths-per-million (DPM) than the rest of the world. The entry for 4/11 shows one way the false reporting is being done, and on 4/12 I named the extent of the difference as 50:1.
That literally incredible ratio has held good ever since; today it's at 47.1:1. There's no way it can be factually true. The group I selected from the G-20 (30 countries in West Europe and North America, "WENA") are lying systematically by reporting their deaths from the Wuhan Bug as about fifty times more than they are, or else the 183 countries in the rest of the world are lying by under-reporting, or both groups are lying in combination. Result: nobody knows anything trustworthy - and, worse, the death reports are being fabricated with no risk of the fraud being confirmed for many months - with a huge audit.
This takes a lot of getting used to. It means we're not trying to understand a medical mystery, we're guessing about what lies governments will tell next. I don't think this has ever happened before.
The WENA group's motive is as follows, and was mentioned on 4/8/2020; their populations are restive, so they wish to re-assert their pretended authority. Their opportunity is that they frequently meet and talk to each other.
Italy has been obliged to absorb far more Muslim refugees from North Africa than can reasonably be done, so Italians have been hurting badly, and protesting, for a decade. Germans are split over a similar issue; Merkel supporters actually welcome such migrants from Turkey and the Balkans to fill vacant jobs, while her opponents note the disruption of society that has followed in Scandinavia. The French too have had far too many arrive from Algeria and its neighbors, so many that 11% of the population is now Muslim and tensions have been at twanging point; middle classes have been demonstrating against Macron's socialist government with "yellow vests" for many months. The Spanish government has been facing demands for secession by Catalonians and Basques. To their North in Britain, a three-year struggle has just ended in victory for Brexit, but that delay has raised popular disgust with Parliament to an unprecedented level.
To the West of the Pond politics have been festering since 2016 because "The Swamp" of Democrats and "establishment" GOPers have, like spoiled brats, been furious that an outsider like Trump was elected, and polarization is intense. So all of these "biggies" in WENA have had good motive to come down on everyone with force and show who's boss. Medical Dictatorship has been the fix that fits them all; and their frequent interchanges in G-20 meetings have provided the means of coordination.
That plan was fairly informal I think; not necessarily a tightly managed conspiracy but a loose agreement among senior civil servants and/or top politicians (but not including Trump) that when the next new virus emerges, probably from Asia as usual, a crisis will be declared, and statistics will be published sufficiently alarming to cow the people into submission.
The deception has been kept going since early March, supported by enough actual deaths from the virus to keep the alarm at full throttle. Nobody (outside some office in The Swamp where the figures are fabricated, mostly by the method outlined in the entries below for 4/11 and 4/20) knows what those actual numbers are, but there are sufficient private, informal reports out now to satisfy even me that the Wuhan Bug has killed some otherwise healthy people. Not many, but some. The very curious thing is that while it can be lethal, a large majority of its infections are harmless, or produce only mild symptoms.
In this Blog I've done a poor job of predicting the likely ill effects of the Bug, each time not properly grasping that I was trying to make a medical forecast instead of an arbitrary, political one. With that disclaimer up front, I'll try again; this time setting sights on its likely actual death count for the USA. For how many will it have been the primary cause of death?
I'll pick as methodology the experience of non-WENA countries whose reporting system is reasonably well developed but who had little or no reason to join the collusion or conspiracy described above; Russia, China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong - that last because it has the highest population density anywhere and is close to the origin of the Wuhan Bug. Those six have 3.2 billion residents; ten times the US' and about 40% of the world's population, and show a DPM of 2.1. Given that the WuFlu is not yet over, they may end up with a DPM of 3.0.
So I reckon the actual number of US deaths from Covid-19 alone will prove to be around (330M x 3/M =) 990, or about 1,000. Also, because at that time virtually all of us will have been infected, it follows that the infection fatality rate will turn out to be about the same; 3 per million or 0.0003%. If so, the bogus nature of this plague will be vividly revealed.
Immune systems fight attacking viruses and (presuming survival) render the patients immune and (if I understand rightly) unable to infect others. Hence, the more that get infected - whether or not symptoms arise - the sooner the epidemic will subside so the sooner government's excuse for enforcing "emergency" restrictions will disappear. Unfortunately the record of them, the history of how willing people have been to conduct themselves like sheep, will remain. Governments will know, for future use, how much repression they can deploy. The next dominating step may be to compel acceptance of vaccines, or perhaps a re-run of this one as a "second wave" C-19, if they think they can repeat the deception. That, we should be able to prevent.
The small studies by Stanford and in Chelsea (see the 4/20/2020 entry below) suggest that many more of us have been harmlessly infected than supposed, and so that this outbreak is nearing its end. When it does fizzle out, the urgent work of rebuilding the economy will start, and the far more urgent work of dismantling government must continue. Without that, the future of the human race can only get worse.
Today's report of government-issued counts for this Bogus Plague show the death toll continuing to rise. My only surprise is that the figure-fabricators, who are probably Democrat bureaucrats to a man, and who are supported by actions illustrated by Kent McManigal, have admitted that States with a Dem Governor (especially Comrade Cuomo in New York) are doing a lot worse than those with Reps; four times worse, on average, so I found. Worldwide, the 30 "Western Civilization" countries continue to show fifty times the average DPM of the ~180 in the rest of the world (actually 49.33x) which continues to prove that they are lying.
Happily, a few signs appeared at the end of last week that the real crisis (the devastation of commerce and of basic freedoms government has caused) may be winding down. The excuse underlying that devastation is that a Plague is running riot, and that story is proving as bogus as I've exposed it on this Blog.
First, a lot of political pressure is being applied to Governors of some States to re-open and lift the restrictions and lock-downs. It comes from owners who are hurting badly, and I hope it will prevail sooner rather than later. The Dow Jones, which dove under 19,000 twice last month, is back up to ~24,000 and may reflect optimism that it will.
Second, a Stanford study has concluded from a survey of 3,330 CA residents that the Wuhan Bug has "about the same infection fatality rate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates for seasonal influenza." That flu rate is 0.1%; ie, if 1,000 get infected, 1 is likely to die. That's a very great deal lower than the Department of Scary Stories (DSS) would have us suppose. Even so, I think it's still far too high - by a factor of at least ten. That's because the Reason article which presents the Stanford study ends with a disclaimer: that if that 0.1% rate were applied to NYC, it would mean that the whole city is already infected, which is "implausible." No; it means that the report of 11,000 NYC deaths is grossly overstated. I trust Stanford much more than Cuomo.
Third, a small survey in the Boston suburb of Chelsea discovered that one in three respondents had Covid-19 "antibodies." Those are made by an immune system to fight off any virus, and their presence proves that the attacker is being defeated; therefore, 33% of those surveyed had been infected with the Wuhan Bug and were beating it. If the sample is extrapolated (it's too small to do so validly) it would mean 100 million of us have already been infected - but without bad effects. This is far higher than has been presumed by the DSS; it suggests, rightly, that with some tragic exceptions this Plague is no big deal.
It works thus: the virus reached America about March 1st, and on March 9th some 186 "cases" had been recorded - those are symptomatic infections that required hospital care. So on 3/9, the number of infections may have been about 3,000 - for as Dr Bhakdi estimated (see the 4/2/2020 entry below) probably 20 are infected for every 1 who gets badly sick.
Next, the infection spreads - very fast. Measurements suggest they double every 3 days. Since 42 days have elaspsed since 3/9 there have been 14 doublings, so some (3000 x 214 = ) 49 million of us have been infected - most, without being aware of it. So as a fair estimate, between 50 and 100 million Americans have been infected and developed our own immunity. That's very good news.
Further, if the 3-day doubling continues, virtually 100% of us will have become immune by the month-end. Mayday therefore ought to be used to celebrate the end of the nightmare and the start of a serious indictment of those who caused it.
4/16/2020News does keep arriving, though not as fast as in the first half of this month. There's good and bad.
The bad news is that retailers are without compulsion conveying the central message of government: that we are all sheep, in need of control, herding, feeding. The slogan "we're all in this together" is popular; a perfect expression of collectivism, just as if the enemy we're battling was a real Black-Death-like plague, rather than government itself. Last time I was aware of that kind of nonsense was in WW2 London, while wearing short pants; and it wasn't true even then.
The Market Basket store where I shop began extremely well last month, treating customers like the kings we are and busting guts to re-fill empty shelves. But now, they are allowing only 125 of us inside at any one time, and then directing us to follow the arrows on the floor (just like convicts) so as to go up one aisle and down the next. Ba-a-a.
But there's some good news. First, I'm forced by law to renew a driver license (needless, of course) and had been told to appear in person at the DMV; a waste of half a day. But in the present alleged "emergency" they have relented and allowed it to be done by email and mail - much simpler. Even more: the guy on the phone who explained the new procedure was aimiable! He even had a sense of humor! That's the second such government employee I've met, in only 11 years.
Then second, a deeper analysis of the Worldometer table has yielded extra confirmation that the understanding of what's going on, revealed below on 4/9, 4/10 and 4/11/2020, is correct. I've been able to group the deaths-per-million data into the G-20 countries and the rest of the world (recall that it's not mathematically valid simply to average a set of ratios.) By "G-20" I mean 30 members of that group either individually or as EU members, but excluding all except North America and Europe - from which I excluded Turkey and Russia. Thus, the set is roughly equivalent to those in "Western Civilization."
Deaths per million in that subset (30) : 112.6
Deaths per million in rest of world (178): 2.2
That's an astonishing ratio of more than 50:1. Two explanations are possible.
1. The virus is intelligent and bigoted enough to target Western civilization 50 times more lethally than anyone else, or
2. The G-20 governments have colluded to cook the books for political reasons, as explained below.
#1 is more ludicrous than anything since Arlen Specter fashioned his Magic Bullet Theory to bolster the fiction that JFK was shot by a lone gunman. Therefore, #2 is proven.
4/12/2020Unless some new twist to the plot is written by the Department of Scary Stories, today's will be the last entry in this Blog for a while. Keep checking every few days, but before long I hope to call it a wrap. To write it each day, trying to understand what is going on, has been invigorating; a kind of real-life mystery, revealing itself daily. Hope you've enjoyed it too!
I've learned quite a bit, in the last two weeks. I'm non-medical, but could admire Dr Bhakdi's logic which we encountered in the 4/2/2020 entry. But mainly the story has unfolded, for me, from the numbers. From the get-go on 3/30/2020 they were clearly fishy, but I did not fathom then what was going on. Even as late as 4/1/2020 I made a guess that US deaths would total 6,000; oops! It could now be 4 or 5 times that. The guess was based on the published Chinese pattern. I did not grasp then that none of the numbers need bear any relation to reality.
It finally clicked into place for me on 4/11/2020; that because governments assemble all of the published numbers, any or all of them can easily be pure fiction; made up to support whatever message each wants to convey to "its" people and without any possibility of being verified or falsified until some months after the event, if ever. That came as an awesome realization; that for as long as it continues to exist, government can fabricate any "news" it pleases, then use it to trash our basic freedoms any way it wishes.
Last week saw the fiction drawing to a close. Trump and Biden spoke on the phone on Monday (4/6) presumably to agree that it was time to wind down the "crisis", the latter's rival Sanders withdrew from the race on Wednesday, and the US "New Cases" chart appeared on Friday to have reached a peak. Of course; that's what the script says was to happen, so that the usual political circus can resume.
The wreckage of savaged liberties and lost jobs - many, permanently - destroyed enterprises and chaotic books of account will long persist. That cost is real, and will set back Western standards of living for years. Such is the cost of government.
Ruinous though it is, I can still see some glimmer of good news out of this government-created mess. First, schools closed! - meaning that several of the destructive aspects of the Youth Indoctrination System were not operating. Here's a reminder of what they do, when in physical operation. Instead, some on-line instruction took place, presumably at the student's own pace. That proves that the buildings, busses and staffing levels are not actually needed. It's a small step, that may stimulate the thought that the entire monopoly needs to be scrapped and education started over.
Second, while many businesses have suffered irreparably, others kept going with staff working at home - again, via the Internet. The convention by which rabbits commute to office warrens each morning and return at night has been shown in part to be needless. If serious adjustments are now made - and in urgent search of cost savings to offset lost revenues, they may be - work patterns may change for the better, leaving much more leisure time and even reducing gasoline usage, which some may think desirable. So it's a really ill wind that blows nobody any good.
I see 17,000 is the latest scary number, for US deaths to date for this Bogus Plague. Since the grand total of deaths from all causes here is (I think) about 250,000 a month, the government number-spinners can make it much higher yet, should they have a mind to. All that's needed is to classify the desired quantity as Corona-caused, and the job is done. Total mortality may not have increased at all, and probably hasn't.
The movie Wag the Dog is a wonderfully funny satire on politics, and one of its best bits comes after the bogus "Albanian War", which film producer Dustin Hoffman had created for TV, was brought to an end by a CIA announcement. He says petulantly "This war won't end until I say it ends!" but master strategist Robert De Niro replies "Sorry, but the war is over. I just saw it on television." Reality is what the media stenographers report.
The fiction in this case is created this way: the Department of Scary Stories in DC picks a number, and the CDC and hence Worldometer reports that 17,000 Corona deaths have occurred. Suppose the normal level of all deaths is 250,000/mo. Then
Current total deaths: 250,000
- Corona deaths: 17,000
= Deaths from other causes: 233,000
Easy; and if it were reported honestly that way there would be no panic, no lockdown, no destruction of commerce.
But it's not reported at all. There is no page, that I have found, that shows the current total mortality.
It gets worse. Suppose some bureau-rat sees this blog entry, or something like it elsewhere, and decides to open the CDC database and publish it. Problem is that having lied so thoroughly so far, there is nothing to stop him lying about that too. He might show:
"Normal" total deaths: 250,000
+ Corona deaths: 17,000
= Current total deaths: 267,000
That would appear to negate fully the accusation above, and bolster the fiction that this plague is not bogus; but how can that bit of mendacity be uncovered? - once government controls the data, it can spin any tale it wishes, without possibility of being falsified. That is the appalling mess into which society has fallen, by having allowed government to exist.
A painstaking audit by an outside investigator would certainly uncover the fraud, but (a) it might not be allowed and (b) even if it were, it would take a long time, probably months. By then, public attention will have been sent elsewhere.
Whoever set this bogus plague going (see the entries for 4/8 and 4/9/2020, below) there is only one culprit causing the immense associated damage: government; and they appear to be doing it by fabricating the figures, classifying as "Corona" deaths some which took place anyway from other causes and, therefore, not affecting the total - which they then conceal, lest it be noticed. In every country, horrible restrictions are being imposed on everyone's conduct. Such lockdowns will probably get worse. In the name of "emergency" and "public health" anything can be prohibited.
That phrase "can be" is worth considering. Not one of them "can be" implemented under the Constitution of the US or of any State I know, though that doesn't apply to other governments without a written charter; but in any case the US one ignores the limits in its charter and, very sadly, not many people care.
If the population is scared enough, government can in practice do anything it wants. And always, what it wants is power. The sheer thrill of dominating millions of people. That's the reason these sociopathic runts get into government in the first place; it gives them a sense of importance they would have no chance of acquiring by taking part in the market, using only persuasion in voluntary exchanges.
So this bogus crisis is showing us one thing very clearly: this is what government is really like. If you don't like it, please help get rid of it. It can be done. There's more here.
Refer again if you will to the Worldometer table, noting the column for deaths per million (DPM.) Of the 208 countries listed, 187 or 90% have DPMs of less than 2. Clearly, the Wuhan Bug is highly discriminatory, politically incorrect and deeply prejudiced; so it should be shot on sight. "Sight" is, admittedly, the tricky bit.
The Bug is rather benevolent towards Asians, no matter their shade of skin color; it has left its birth-mother China off lightly, with a DPM of 2, and is even kinder to the countries on its border; India for example has a mere 0.1 and Russia, 0.4. Even Hong Kong, where "social distancing" is a sick joke, escapes with 0.5 and nearby South Korea and Japan are favored with 4 and 0.7.
Move West, however, and the prejudice turns nastier. The Bug is clearly not impressed by Islam, especially the Shia sort; Turkey (Sunni) it hits with 8, but Iran (Shia) is clobbered with 46. Syria, which is Shia but more relaxed, suffers only 0.1 and we can be glad of that for Syria has been suffering awfully in recent years from other malefactors. Saudi Arabia, likewise, is let off lightly with only 1, so the Bug appears to like the Wahhabis. That must enrage the mullahs across the Gulf.
The Bug's heaviest bigotry becomes clear further West yet: it very obviously detests Popery. Italy, France and Spain all clock in at well over 100 each, which is even worse than the influenza rate even though nobody mentions that (except this Blog, see 4/1/2020 below) and all three are hotbeds of Roman Catholicism. Northern Europe, notably Germany (22) is more Protestant and most of its countries are under 100.
A more serious reading of the table will show however that the above is largely tongue-in-cheek, that the religious correlations especially are ragged at the edges. The one that matters can be seen by comparing the countries alleged to be most heavily hit, with membership in the club of governments called G-20. Of the top 21 countries ranked by Wuhan Bug deaths per million, 19 are members of the G-20, either individually or as members of the EU.
That correlation is striking. The "whodunnit" is solved; the club of governments that have fabricated all these fantastic figures is the G-20. They meet annually, their leaders are on speed-dial with each other, and they visited this Bogus Plague on their respective populations to help each to keep the peasantry in its place.
That is, who is responsible for this artificial crisis, this worldwide lunacy? It will be a while before historians nail the culprit(s) for sure, but here are some parties "of interest."
Opposition politicians in any major country have a motive to destabilize the incumbent government. That's very obvious in the USA; Democrats are frantic to unseat Trump and before the Wuhan Bug dropped into their lap they had little chance of doing so. Trump said accurately on February 24th that the Bug was no big deal, just the latest Democrat hoax; and he was not wrong. However, that doesn't explain how or why it should be a worldwide alleged crisis, so I don't place the local Dems at the top of my suspect list.
The boys in Beijing did begin the process by jumping quickly on the outbreak in Wuhan, and reported Chinese numbers show it to have been suppressed - after a few Bugs traveled overseas and infected everyone else. That action is consistent with a plan to hurt all economies except the Chinese one. But why? - Why set out to damage your customers, on whom Chinese prosperity depends?
The demons of Davos, or the Illuminati, or Bilderbergers, the set of Very Powerful Bankers and industrialists who supposedly run the world. Okay, they would benefit if smaller companies everywhere were put out of business so that their larger ones can be even more monopolistic; so I'll leave them on the list - but color me skeptic.
The media madmen. Just possibly, nobody planned this panic; maybe it's just the vicious cycle of a feeding frenzy by the old style, "mainstream" media who urgently need a sensation to bolster their fast-flagging ratings. If so, it's up to us to make their richly-deserved demise certain, swift and final.
The governments' gang - some temporary alliance of those governing major countries. That's my Prime Suspect. The means is available; they control their respective health-care systems and media. Their motive is clear: greatly to increase the level of control they can bully their populations to accept, at a time when large segments are getting restless and enquiring what, actually, government is for - such as the "Deplorables" of the US Trump Revolution, as in the libertarian movements, and the widespread gilets jaunes in France and elsewhere. A semi-formal government club may quite possibly have concluded that the peasants are revolting and it's time to crack the whip, assert some authority. The club may have waited for a new virus to appear, as they quite often do, then swung into action with a pre-fabricated pattern of alarming statistics.
Perhaps other villains will join the list; name me some, if you have any. And keep an eye on this Blog.
4/7/2020Suggestions for conduct when colds and flu and other bugs are going around are fair enough, though I have so little respect for government that if I hear their advice I try to do the opposite. It's just common sense and courtesy; if you can avoid it, try not to get too close to people in case one of you is infected.
"Common sense" ideas change their color when they get enforced by government thugs. In London here's what it's like, according to Brendan O'Neill. This may be coming soon, to a park near you.
Evidently the cops there are still kind-of polite, even when they sneer. I think I'm going to change my name for this lunacy; "Bogus Crisis" has served well, but perhaps a better one is "Bogus Plague." The Wuhan Bug is no more harmful than a nasty cold, so the allegations that it's increasing the death rates anywhere are false; but there's a true crisis, by no means bogus; one of monstrous government interference with normal life - a "tyranny", as O'Neill calls it. That is what it's really all for, and what we have to fear.
I still haven't figured out what cops will do to those who defy their diktats. Arrest them? - that would make them get closer to each other, and to the cop, than the mandated 6 feet. Shoot them? - yes, but it won't be long before someone notices that killing someone to protect him from alleged danger is kinda counter-productive. Or as Peter Hitchens put it so well in this blockbuster interview, it's like curing measles by amputating a leg.
4/6/2020There are lies, damned lies, and statistics; and governments lie routinely. Sometimes the lies are very clever. In their present determination to convince everyone there's a dangerous plague at work, to combat which their forceful resources are urgently needed, one of their biggest lies is to stay silent.
It works this way. In any time period and country, there is a count of total deaths - from all causes. Those counts are hard to find, even on the Net; I've found only one. It's from Her Britannic Majesty's government, and it shows, here, all deaths by week for England & Wales, about 3 weeks after the event. Not bad. Notably, it also shows that the week-on-week variation is very tiny. Here are some of its 2020 numbers:
2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/6 3/13 10986 10944 10841 10816 10895 11019
It seems we humans die off at a surprisingly steady rate, unless there's an unusual disturbance to that rate such as earthquakes, pestilences or plagues.
So if there is a true plague, the count of total deaths may noticeably rise. If it doesn't rise, there's no plague.
Yet while a FedGov agency (the CDC, I presume) certainly has that count a day or two after the deaths occur (because otherwise it could not hand on the Corona numbers every day to Worldometer) we're not being told what it is. Most probably, if it was revealed it would show no notable rise; otherwise, the lie-masters would hardly hesitate to release it so as to bolster their message. By staying silent, government is cooking the books.
So much for the vital but missing baseline. How now about the numbers for Wuhan Bug deaths themselves; are they accurate?
That depends on the directives given to the scores of thousands of physicians who certify causes of deaths. What are those directives; do they say to classify a death as Corona-caused if the Wuhan Bug is found to be present, or only if it is judged to be the primary cause at work? There's a huge difference, as Dr Bhakdi pointed out below, and sometimes it may well be hard to tell. Hence the importance of the directives, or protocol. Below, this Blog noted that this one factor could account for the otherwise unbelievable difference between Italy and Japan, indeed for those among all countries.
Lastly there could be skulduggery in the process when a summary of all the causes-of-death is passed by the CDC to reporters such as Worldometer. I doubt if any happens before that point, because an audit trail exists within the government system; any bureaucrat who falsified them (when passing data from State to Federal hands, for example) would know that eventually he'll be found out and blamed; and all b-rats are allergic to blame. But if the CDC were to drop a digit when conveying them outside, the tampering could lie undiscovered and then attributed to a recipient's keystroke error. I don't say it happens; only that it could; and that it would remain until long after this bogus crisis is finished.
4/5/2020Yesterday I did my weekly shopping at Market Basket, and again they have done extraordinarily well in response to this crazy panic, this bogus crisis. Some items are still short, and polite notices ask customers to limit ourselves to a quantity of 1, or 2. A few are still out of stock - eg dishwasher fluid. The day may be coming when I'll have to wash up by hand. Oh, the humanity!
Another item was Vitamin C, and that's rather encouraging. All the other usual vitamins were on the shelf, but not C. So plenty of people have been reading reports on the Net that taken in large doses, Vit-C has been found to shorten and end any Wuhan Bug infection that happens to turn nasty. None of the establishment spokescritters mentioned this.
What a week it's been! This Wuhan Bug Blog began on 3/30, last Monday, but so much has happened it seems longer. The outrageous extent to which "our" and other governments are magnifying the dangers from this minor virus is astonishing, except to those of us who understand that the whole purpose of government is to acquire, preserve and extend power over people. We are witnessing one of the greatest power-grabs in history, before our very eyes.
4/4/2020The mad stampede continues, with ever-increasing numbers of cases and alleged Wuhan Bug deaths, media sensationalism is way off the charts and those wishing to damage incumbent politicians (as Democrats do Trump, in the US) are fairly foaming at the mouth to blame them for doing too little, or too late, or in any case too wrong. In reality they are doing far too much.
There's an easy way to verify the perception being developed here thanks to Dr Bhakdi's insights: compare the total deaths in any country for a period such as March, with the same period last year and the year(s) before. If this panicdemic really is a pandemic with new deaths littering its trail, there will be a spike in the numbers for 2020. If there isn't, the perception here will be confirmed as accurate.
Unfortunately, so far I've not been able to find any such data on the Net. If you have, please send me the URL molto pronto, via firstname.lastname@example.org .
To do the job, the data must relate to one of the countries with an unusually high alleged Wuhan Bug death count - such as Italy or Spain. In the case of the US, monthly "normal" deaths are around 250,000 (hopefully, balanced by a similar number of new-born babies!) and since March saw only 5,000 reported C-19 deaths that would be only a 2% spike and that wouldn't prove much; a year-on-year fluctuation of 2% would not be exceptional.
About URLs: the one here is http://www.theanarchistalternative.info/zgb/wbb.htm and if you agree that this material should go... viral, help it along by emailing it to your family and friends and ask them to do the same. Yesterday I noted some of the appalling damage being done by the panic, and the urgency of the need to stop it cold increases daily.
By the way, Dr Sukharit Bhakdi deserves a Nobel Prize. Anyone offer odds on that happening?
4/3/2020The implications of Professor Bhakdi's message, if correct, are massive.
However, there is one other; it would be a very ill wind that blows nobody any good :
- If a large fraction of the population (in any country) already has the Wuhan Bug as carriers but are not being harmed by it, anyone who has reason to be tested will rush to, and grossly overburden, hospital testing facilities, will often test positive and may get admitted. A subsequent death will be attributed to the Wuhan Bug, even if there are multiple other causes. Then the reported numbers for "new cases" will escalate exponentially. This is happening now, in the USA for example. It does not however mean that anything is taking place which requires any sort of social distancing, quarantining or banner headlines in the media and certainly not any government intervention; the panic is artificial.
- In one stroke, that stampede explains the incredible anomaly between Italy and Japan, assuming the latter is recording causes of death more or less sensibly while Italians are counting as in (a) and attributing deaths to the Wuhan Bug even it is not actually a determining factor. The Worldometer tables, though elegantly presented, are therefore meaningless.
- Among the many deprivations of liberty already in place because of the needless alarm is the quarantining of prisoners. They have a legal right to court hearings on a guaranteed schedule; for example, to a bail hearing after arrest within one day. Those rights are being denied, while they are cooped up in an environment in which "social distancing" is impossible; if the disease were as deadly as government people say, this could very well mean some people are confined in a death trap - capital punishment - for some trivial infraction of law. No matter that the danger is actually small; government says it believes it is large, and is violating those rights anyway, so providing a terrible indictment of government.
- Total deaths in any country are not in fact increasing at all; the reported numbers are just reclassifications of how some are caused. This is either accidental or deliberate; an enormous mistake or a vast lie. Either way, governments are responsible. (Have you had enough of them, yet?)
- Airlines are especially hard hit, as are restaurants, by this wickedly bogus crisis. The economic wreckage will be huge. Already in the US, the FedGov has rushed through a "rescue" package that will cost future taxpayers $2 trillion, or about 10% of the entire national, annual GDP and nearly half of the total FedGov spend for 2019 for all purposes. The economic damage has already been anticipated by the stock market and is shown as a 33% drop in prices.
- As most of us know, extreme strain has been placed on food and other retail stores, as many in the population suppose retailers will become unable to do what they do very well; there is a "run" on the supermarkets. Folk fear they will be locked down and so unable to shop - a reasonable fear, 100% attributable to government arrogance. Result: empty shelves. Some have done amazing work in late March to fill them again, so that currently only paper and detergent products are still being hoarded by scared customers. The disruption and expense involved, however, is huge.
- Government schools have closed.
4/2/2020The first entry below, on 3/30, concludes that there is something fishy about the published counts for this disease. Three possible reasons are shown; today, I've become aware of a fourth and it looks credible.
Meet Professor Emeritus Doktor Sukharit Bhakdi. His expertese is in microbiology and he has written to Chancellor Merkel to suggest the cancellation of liberties in Germany may be ill-founded. Off-Guardian has published his letter, and a 15-minute video clip, here.
I strongly suggest you watch it, and read that letter. It brings calm scholarship to an hysterical situation. (An extra reason is that his handsome facial features resemble my own; at first sight I thought I was looking in a mirror.)
Dr Bhakdi first establishes that the Novel Corona virus is a new member of a long-recognized set of viri, which bring the symptoms like the flu or a bad cold, with fever; a nuisance, but never previously found worthy of government interference. He asks whether the new one is more or less dangerous than the others, and shows it's about the same. Therefore, there is no need at all for media sensation or restraining free action.
Another of his five points (expressed as questions to Merkel) is that the Wuhan Bug is so contageous that it has already probably infected much of the population, without ill effect; but that if it is found to be present after someone has died, it may or may not be reported as the cause of death; and hence the wild variations in DPM noted in this Blog, below. He follows Robert Koch by insisting that there is a huge difference between a malady being present when a person dies, and being the primary cause of that death.
This, and more, brings to me a new perspective. The non-credible disparities between DPMs in different countries may well not be the result of confusing the new disease with flu, but of confusing it with quite unrelated causes of death and merely being noted as present. The bottom line is that the figures, faithfully reported by Worldometer, are almost worthless, the rabid limitations on liberty are completely needless, and the appalling damage being done to the economy is an absolute waste. The first ZGBlog on this topic was titled This Bogus Crisis: it's far, far more bogus than I supposed.
4/1/2020Let's do a quick influenza comparison.
The chart is a rough indicator of the large difference. One the left is the CDC estimate for flu, and on the right is the report for the Wuhan bug. They are in the ratio of 10:1.
The CDC flu estimate for the season is 24,000 to 62,000 US deaths, and the Wuhan bug deaths are reported as 2,400; I have made a rough guess that they could rise as high as a bit over 6,000 when all is said and done, based on the chart displayed in yesterday's comment. Either way, it's 10:1. Maybe Trump was right: it's just another Democrat hoax.
The large significance is that whereas the flu was preceded by the usual fanfare that urged everyone to get a "flu shot" of vaccine that's meant to immunize from the disease, 24,000 to 62,000 people are estimated to die from it anyway. The Wuhan bug is one-tenth as deadly but has no vaccine yet developed. This puts a question mark over the usefulness of vaccines in general and a huge question mark over the panic and palaver regarding the Wuhan bug. Like 9/11, government has jumped all over this outbreak so as to extend its powers and therefore to reduce ours. This isn't much of a crisis, but they are making quite sure it doesn't go to waste.
Vaccines work by fooling the body into thinking a new bug is on the way and so antibodies need to be generated to destroy it. Then if and when the real disease arrives, the antibody defense is ready and the person is immune. It worked very well for smallpox and polio. I'm not convinced it works well for flu. I've never had one, yet haven't had the flu in several decades; this year all other members of my family got a shot, yet 5 out of 11 of us got the flu.
Who benefits from the annual hundred-million use of flu shots? - those who make and sell them, of course. April fool?
3/31/2020The Chinese outbreak has ended, or almost ended, see this page in Worldometer. They started first and ended first. Their DPM figure is 2.24, it shows zero new cases for the last two weeks, and deaths are almost zero after peaking at about 150/day five weeks ago. Excellent news, and hopefully a model for everyone else.
Unfortunately the US and Europe have not followed the Chinese model, and in subsequent posts here we'll try to understand why not. The right-hand chart shows the US pattern - we began 4 weeks after China - and the daily toll of deaths may be approaching a peak; but in China the peak was a couple of weeks wide, so we may alas be looking at about 500 a day for at least the next week. Then, all being well, it will tail off rapidly.
Three factors need always to be remembered:
- This disease is still trivial compared to the flu, despite the wide availability of a vaccine
- The associated economic downturn is almost wholly political; a Democrat attempt to destabilize Trump
- Government has salivated over the opportunity to impose draconian new restrictions on behavior
More later on #3, especially.
3/30/2020First and perhaps foremost, the Worldometer site is very well prepared indeed, with excellent presentation, almost as if it had been built in advance, waiting for the outbreak to begin; but that's impossible. Isn't it?
Then, the figures it shows are no better than the source from which they came (presumably, health departments within each of the world's governments) and they are highly suspect.
Prime example: compare Italy with Japan. Both are technically advanced societies, both are surrounded by the sea and or high mountains, so are somewhat isolated. Japan has 126 million people and Italy half that. They have different cultures, but the Wuhan Bug cannot tell the difference. So why does Italy have 178 deaths per million (DPM) while Japan has only 0.4 DPM - 445 times less? That makes no credible sense.
Similarly the US shows 8 DPM but the almost-identical society of Canada only 2 and the rather different neighbor Mexico, a mere 0.2, or 40 times less than ours. How come?
Such numbers cannot be right, yet most of what we know about this outbreak depends upon them.
- There's a time-warp; some countries publish counts faster than others
- Some countries accidentally confuse the Wuhan Bug with the flu, whose incidence is much larger
- Some countries do that deliberately, for some political purpose